Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 1.150510 1.467109 1.874736 2.447244 3.245603 4.342608e+00 6.005785e+00
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.869611 1.253580 1.831142 2.800122 4.464353 7.370943e+00 1.325448e+01
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.633386 1.005496 1.640295 2.880365 5.456374 1.115546e+01 2.696847e+01
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.462419 0.794737 1.425168 2.834372 6.334321 1.617421e+01 5.519616e+01
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.377729 0.703335 1.392701 3.175849 8.616106 2.927496e+01 1.665872e+02
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.309413 0.618327 1.340553 3.485762 11.544680 5.438126e+01 6.287198e+02
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.261099 0.557703 1.320725 3.926525 16.184453 1.142224e+02 4.173321e+03
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.221059 0.501025 1.286745 4.351356 22.496700 2.570239e+02 7.738661e+04
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.178804 0.422983 1.153583 4.307847 26.843241 4.846614e+02 9.644676e+06
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.143369 0.350590 1.002593 4.058712 29.696137 8.401715e+02 NaN
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.122671 0.312170 0.946120 4.240965 38.472333 2.205477e+03 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.110120 0.293153 0.950216 4.813162 57.663960 1.065652e+04 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.097793 0.272012 0.942727 5.420915 89.017811 1.160579e+05 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.086403 0.249804 0.919577 5.955011 135.243867 8.681682e+06 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.073379 0.217393 0.831872 5.828434 167.046925 1.192112e+14 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.061864 0.186610 0.735031 5.468842 189.219140 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.055833 0.173892 0.721532 5.998956 302.302101 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.050309 0.161181 0.700824 6.460058 479.447947 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.046107 0.152209 0.696021 7.196765 866.050481 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.042219 0.143174 0.685510 7.899476 1596.965464 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.037288 0.128168 0.628134 7.657705 2087.759084 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.032576 0.112802 0.559985 7.045235 2293.622050 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.029727 0.104796 0.536809 7.301586 3826.855442 NaN NaN